Blog 1.4

1. What has changed since Clinton's high point in Mid-August?

2. Looking at the graph, when was the largest lead for Clinton over Trump in the polls?

3.  About how big is the gap between the candidates now?

4. What arguments can Clinton's opponents make because of her new health issues?

5. Which swing states are mentioned and how does Clinton fare in those places?

6. What 3 reasons does the author give for the recent tightening in the polls?

7. What specific changes has the Trump campaign made since mid August?

8. How has the Trump campaign changed its spending habits?

9. What did the Clinton campaign change up in August?

10. How does Vox author Jeff Stein account for some changes in the polls?

Answers:

1. The Presidential Election has grown closer, yet Clinton still leads.

2. Around August 9th, Clinton had what looks to be an 8% lead on Trump.

3. The gap currently is at 3%.

4. Because Clinton waited to report her illness, one could argue that it is another example of her lying.

5a. In Virginia, she leads by six points.

5b. Wisconsin: 5 pts

5c. New Hampshire: 5 pts.

5d. Pennsylvania: 6 pts.

5e. Florida: Tied

6a. "Trump has (relatively) cleaned up his act."

6b. "Lots of negative stories for Clinton have been in the news even before this weekend." 

6c. "Clinton had a weekend from hell." 

7. "Trump has made major changes to his campaign team and press strategy..."

8. He’s started actually spending money on TV ads..."

9. "Clinton kept a relatively light campaign schedule in August so she could focus on fundraising instead."

10. "It’s possible that this sudden swing in the polls is affected somewhat by differential non-response rates... That is to say, the news of Clinton’s illness may have made her supporters less enthusiastic about even answering polls, so they’d naturally show up less often in the results even after demographic weighting."

Blog 1.3

1. What is the general understanding of the term "independent voter"?

2. How do these researchers characterize voters who call themselves independent?

3. How do independent political preferences compare to those of Democrats and Republicans?

4. What are "leaners"?   How are leaners different from party members?

5. What percent of Americans call themselves independent?  Democrats?  Republicans?

6. What percent of Americans actually don't lean towards one of the parties?

7. Why are people likely to call themselves independent instead of identifying themselves with a party?

8. What prevents independents from forming a real third party challenge to Democrats and Republicans?

9. Why don't independents actually impact the outcome of elections that much?

10. How are moderate voters different than "independents"?

11. How are "swing voters" and "undecided voters" different?

Answers

1. "The simple definition of an independent is a person who does not affiliate with the Democratic or Republican Party."

2. "As far as political scientists and pollsters are considered, an independent is anyone who says she is an independent."

3. Many Independents' views actually do align (to some degree) with that of either Democrats or Republicans.

4a. Leaners are "independents who will admit, when asked, that they do in fact prefer one party over the other."

4b. "There is almost no difference between people who identify as partisans and people who say they are independent and then say they lean toward a particular party."

5a. Gallup reports that about 42% of the population is Independent.

5b. 29% is Democratic.

5c. 26% is Republican. (Fun #FACTS: That still leaves 3% of the population as some other political party.)

6. "Only [13%] of people are independents who don’t lean toward either party."

7. Simply put, "people think that being independent is cool;" appearing unbiased makes a good impression, and having the belief that you are removed from the conflict that occurs between America's two main political parties is satisfying too.

8. "In order for political independents to rise up and elect a third-party candidate, two things would have to occur. First, people who say they are independent would have to truly believe that neither of the two parties can effectively represent them. Second, the group of people who report that they are independent would have to have sufficiently coherent interests so as to coalesce around the same candidate. Both of these criteria suggest it is unlikely that people who call themselves independents will move America toward a third party."

9. They aren't really free in thought; remember, Independents are generally leaners. Therefore, they are likely geared to vote in a certain pre-determined way.

10. "Moderate" is more of an ideology, whereas "Independent" is more of a party alignment.

11. Swing voters and undecided voters differ in their degrees of attachment to a candidate. While swing voters are weakly aligned with a candidate and could be persuaded away from them, undecided voters have no ties to any candidate and are generally free for the taking, granted one is able to adequately sway them.

Blog 1.2

1. What was unique about Hillary's response to a question about political polarization?

2. What does Hillary Clinton feel motivates her political opponents?

3. How does she characterize those that make grand speeches about bringing the people together?

4. What will be her strategy for dealing with political opponents if she wins office?

5. What does she think will change about the public's perception of her if she wins?  Why does she think this?

6. What is the trend in approval ratings of recent presidents by both major parties?

7. Which presidents since Eisenhower were the least polarizing?

8. Which presidents have had the lowest approval rating among their own party?

9. Which presidents have had the lowest approval rating among the opposition party?

Answers

1. She talked about change would be gradual, rather than sudden.
2. Her opponents desire to destroy her, or so she believes.
3. She thinks they're dreaming, based upon knowledge  gained from past experiences.
4. She plans to negotiate and compromise.
5a. She thinks her popularity will increase.
5b. Previously, whenever she held office, her approval rating was quite relatively larger, so she expects change with her election.
6. They are always increasing in difference.
7. Carter and/or Johnson were the least polarizing.
8. Carter saw the lowest domestic disapproval.
9. Obama had the lowest disapproval from the opposition.