Blog 2.1

1. Right before the first debate, how close was the race?  How much do debates typically impact the polls?

2. Why are these debates less important than the debates that take place in the primaries?

3. Why can we not be sure that the debates themselves are what causes changes in the polls during the debate season?

4. How was the Obama-Romney campaign affected by the first debate?

5. What aspects of Richard Nixon & Al Gore's debate performances may have swung the outcome of elections?  Is this related to how they would perform at president in any way?

6. How might low expectations of Trump's performance end up helping him?

7.  How can the media impact what people think about the performances in the debate?

8. How did the Arizona State study measure the media's effects on people's perception? What was the result of their study?

Answers:

1a. "Recent polls suggest Hillary Clinton is still on track to win — but just barely."

1b. "Debates have the potential to make a small but real impact on the race. Polls have often shifted by a few percentage points during debate season, and in a close race, that could really matter."

2. During the primary debates, not as many people are whole-heartedly committed to a candidate; therefore, the primary debates are of greater importance because they are more likely to win over voters as compared to the general election debates.

3. Many things can occur during debate season; that is to say, "Because events can occur outside of debates that have effects on the election but still during debate season, we cannot assume that the only changes during debate season are a result of said debates."

4. Obama lost his four point lead over Romney, possibly due to how people viewed his performance in the first debate.

5a. The way the two presented themselves during their respective debates, i.e. appearance and body language, may have swung the outcome.

5b. Not at all; we, as Americans, are just very superficial.

6. Because Trump sets the bar so low, a moderate performance during the debates can actually make him look like a huge success.

7. The media is who decides who "won" the debate, and for some reason, the public cares about this; therefore, the media can shape how the public thinks about who had a better performance in the debate.

8a. To Group A, they only showed the debate. To Group B, they showed the debate along with twenty minutes of post-commentary by NBC. To Group C, they showed the debate along with commentary on CNN's website.

8b. A majority of Group A thought John Kerry won against George W. Bush; a majority of Group B thought George W. Bush won against John Kerry; and most in Group C either thought there was no clear winner OR Kerry had the edge.